Alright, I’m really, really hoping that someone who is familiar with forecasting foreign exchange (at a higher level than I am) can help me out with this. I obsessively watch foreign exchange fluctuations for the US dollar versus the British pound. During February/March it was pretty favorable for Americans. Really favorable actually — around $1.37 to $1.45. The currency is extremely volatile and thusly it’s really difficult to have a good idea of any direction based on a given moment in time. I have heard from reputable sources that the dollar may decline against the pound in the fall (this was not based on a quantitative analysis, but rather an inkling based on forex knowledge). I have also read on foreign exchange sites that the pound may increase against the dollar in the short term (Q2/Q3) hitting a peak in July or August, but will ultimately decline in the fall, returning to a low of $1.35 to $1.50 (give or take). I don’t know what to believe! I would like to believe the latter only because it’s very advantageous for me, but I don’t want to believe it if it isn’t true. Does anyone have any insight into this? Do we think that the dollar is going to strengthen by the end of the year (in which case I’ll wait to change my money!) or is the US government printing money faster than the British government, thusly causing the GBP to strengthen against the USD?
A little help, anyone?